Howard Marks, in one of his recent Oaktree Capital Memo’s, writes:
“…economics defines and constrains reality in business, investing and everyday life. Economics establishes the rules of the game and the boundaries of the playing field, and these things can’t be ignored. They can be altered, but not without consequences.
The realities of economics are stark and consistent, but also logical. They aren’t absolute, like the laws of physics (e.g., gravity), but they reliably establish tendencies and limits. If the price of something goes up, the amount consumed is likely to go down. If wages rise, the number of people employed for a task is likely to decline. If tax rates go up, there’s likely to come a point at which there’s less incentive to work, and thus less output. If a government spends more, to pay the bills it has to either print money (which tends to be inflationary), raise taxes or borrow.”
Marks goes on to discuss the importance of constraints and trade-offs, yet in politics, there are never trade-offs. A politician will say: “I will give you A” and leave out: “but you have to give up B.” They can promise to raise taxes on corporations to balance our budget, yet ignore potential consequences on job creation in the US. They promise to impose import tariffs to help US jobs yet leave out the probable increase in prices for things millions of Americans buy, like iPhones.
With this in mind, after setting the rules of the economic system and protecting those rules, I believe the role of government is to be honest about the “choices” and “trade-offs” (rather than ignore them and make false promises) and determine the best decisions for increasing the overall utility of the system. For example, free trade will hurt some US jobs, but it may have a positive benefit on the overall economy. There may be a couple million jobs lost, but there also may be goods that are drastically cheaper to 300 million individuals. The question for politicians is, if we believe the cheaper goods far outweigh the lost jobs, then is there something we can do to help those that lose jobs? Rather than punish the 300 million through import tariffs for the sake of significantly fewer people, maybe we can acknowledge the overall benefit of free trade and ask ourselves how we can compensate the few hurt by it.
This is only one example, therefore, are there other examples of the role of government in the economy?
Memo Below:
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/economic-reality.pdf?sfvrsn=6